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Prediction for CME (2025-06-03T07:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2025-06-03T07:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/39270/-1
CME Note: A slow partial halo CME to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3, GOES CCOR-1 and to the east in STEREO A COR2, seen more brightly in COR2. Its start time could possibly be even earlier as some wispy outflows start in SOHO LASCO C2 approximately an hour before, but the clear front is seen closer to 2025-06-03T07:48Z. Its source is likely the eruption of a filament north and northeast of the disk center, seen in SDO AIA 193/304 and EUVI A 195/304/284 starting at ~2025-06-03T01:21Z. The development of the associated dimming is very peculiar, with initial dimming (and the faint post-eruptive arcades) centered around ~(N20E01), but later the dimming is seen migrating/expanding eastwardly through the rest of the morning, and settling on a large circular area centered ~N35E15 by 2025-06-03T12:20Z. | Arrival Signature: Characterized by an initial spike in Bt from 5nT to 6.6nT, gradually rising up to 11.8nT by 2025-06-07T12:19Z, Bz largely northward and neutral with some brief southward periods down to -10nT. Three distinct changes of the magnetic field components are observed around 2025-06-07T6:30Z, 2025-06-07T8:37Z, and 2025-06-07T11:21Z as well. Solar wind speed increased from about 400 km/s to about 420 km/s briefly, returned to about 380 km/s, then slowy rose back to around 430 km/s starting at 2025-06-07T03:51Z. A gradual rise and decrease of density begins with the intial Bt spike around 2025-06-07T00:15Z to 2025-06-07T08:42Z, with a another short jump in density from 2025-06-07T10:11Z to 2025-06-07T11:32Z. A gradual rise and decrease in temperature begins around 2025-06-07T03:00Z ending around 2025-06-07T12:20Z. This is likely the arrival of CME 2025-06-03T07:48Z, possibly mixed with a weak high speed stream signature, this signature is under further analysis due to its complexity.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2025-06-07T00:15Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2025-06-07T08:00Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/39272/1
Model Inputs:
2025-06-03T07:48:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-20.0, Lat.=14.0, Speed=328.0, HalfAngle=36.0, Time21.5=2025-06-03T18:09Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2025-06-07T08:00Z (+- 7 hours)
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
OSIRIS-APEX with esitmated shock arrival time 2025-06-06T06:00Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Juice_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250603_180900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 78.52 hour(s)
Difference: -7.75 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Anna Chulaki (M2M SWAO) on 2025-06-03T17:44Z

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